Tartu population 2035

In cooperation with Geomedia and the University of Tartu, the Tartu population forecast until 2035 was prepared. The introduction of the results to the public took place on 27th of May 2015 in Tartu, Raekojaplats 12. The presentation was held by Tiit Tammaru and Rivo Noorkõiv. The forecast has been conducted for Tartu city as a whole and for its settlement units. The calculations are based on two scenarios: Scenario #1 displays the population changes based on a so-called closes population development, this means focusing on the influence of birth- and death rates while migration is not accounted for. Scenario #2 calculates with natural demographic and migration-based changes. Taking into account the terms of the contracting authority, the expected migration is accounted for more optimistic than the realistic expectations. When constituting the migration scenario, it was assumed that the net migration increases by 100 people compared to the years before and that the student share will stay a zero-sum game throughout the forecasted period. In sum, it can be confirmed that in the light of today’s migration processes a positive change in migration is central to the formation of Tartu’s population. Therefore, it is necessary that the competitiveness of Tartu urban region increases internally as well as internationally and that Tartu manages to (1) better keep its students, (2) decrease urban sprawl, and (3) offer better employment and living opportunities for newcomers (from Estonia as well as from abroad). This helps to equally balance Estonia’s regional development and sets the prerequisites for a national development including two strong centers, where Tartu acts as a strong polyfunctional regional center for South Estonia, including the fulfillment of international functions.